Michael Bourn is Worth the Compensation Pick

Mets fans complaining about possibly giving up a 1st round pick in order to sign Michael Bourn need to calm down. Anyone who follows the Mets knows their track record of drafting studs in the 1st round hasn’t exactly been stellar. I went back and looked at their 1st round picks from ’98-’08 to see how many of them went on to become impact players. Take a look at the list and judge for yourself:

1. Jason Tyner – bust
2. Billy Traber – bust
3. Bobby Keppel – bust
4. Aaron Heilman – no explanation needed if you follow the Mets
5. David Wright – stud
6. Scott Kazmir – a few good seasons before sizzling out
7. Lastings Milledge – ha!!
8. Philip Humber – aside from the perfect game, a big disappointment
9. Mike Pelfrey – serviceable middle to back end of the rotation guy
10. Eddie Kunz – 1 career strikeout
11. Nathan Vineyard – already out of baseball
12. Ike Davis – blossoming into a legitimate power hitter
13. Reese Havens – he’s got maybe one more shot this year to prove he’s not a complete bust
14. Bradley Holt – era over 5.00 in 5 minor league seasons

So by my count, 8 of the 14 were complete busts. Humber was borderline ok; Pelf, Kazmir and Heilman were decent. So that leaves just Ike and Wright as 1st round picks that have lived up to the hype. So the naysayers are complaining about giving up a pick that historically has a 14% success rate?

Now none of us know what the current asking price is for Bourn, but it’s safe to say its a fraction of what it when the offseason began (most rumors I saw had him in the 5 year/$75 million range). In my opinion, given the fact that spring training is only a few weeks away, Bourn will probably be forced to agree to a 2 year deal, somewhere in the neighborhood of $20 million. If that’s too much for the Mets, or they don’t feel he’s worth $10 million a year, then so be it. But the compensatory pick should not be the deal breaker here.